Week 9
“Decision Making
Methods 1”
Dr Ramesh Vahidi r.vahidi@soton.ac.uk
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Southampton Business School
27th & 29th Jul 21
Aims of Week 9
• A review of more common DM methods applicable in
PM for option/alternative and idea generation,
problem identification, formulation, prioritisation,
decision analysis and making, etc.
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“Idea/Option
Generation/Selection”
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Southampton Business School
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Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Discussion until agreement Potential Problem: “We discussed and I decided”.
Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Selection of a representative, abide by his/her decision Potential Problem: Lack of long term commitment Success criteria: Selection of the most qualified rep.
Consensus
Dictatorship
Techniques (non-structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (1)
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Techniques (semi-/structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
Brainstorming
Delphi
• What are the rules and conditions of a successful brainstorming session?
• Where could this method be most useful in project lifecycle?
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Your Knowledge of Brainstorming
Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
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Brainstorming Quantity matters
No criticism or early judgment
Unusual ideas welcome!
Combine/ modify ideas
Could be facilitated & documented
Brainstorming: Some Variations
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Nominal Group Technique Brainstorming with Roles
– Individual idea generation – Anonymous – Facilitator/moderator – Members equal – Group prioritise ideas – More than one round
Group Passing Technique – Individuals put one idea on the paper – Round table – Circulating and adding to the ideas – Vote
– Inclusive, collaborative – Start with well-defined topic – Aggregated individual ideas on a map – Voting for priority/Taking action
Team Idea Mapping Method More variations:
Goodwin & Wright (2014)
Sekhar & Lidiya (2012)
Virine and Trumper (2008)
• Brainstorming Rys
• Jonah Lehrer on Brainstorming (*some focus on criticism)
• Brainstorming and essay writing
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cll6AEzXh8c
• (Really) Bad Brainstorm
• Think You’ve Already Been To The Worst Brainstorm Meeting Ever? Think Again
• Brainstorming: We Are Doing It Wrong
• How to run a more productive Brainstorming session by Dr Ken Hudson
• Brainstorming: Is Your Mind Wild Enough to Make a Conceptual Leap? | Bill Burnett
Some Brainstorming Videos
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Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)
Delphi Quantitative forecasts
No or limited direct interaction/anonymous
Iterative
Individuals’ (panellists)
judgment and feedback
Outcome: Quantified group ‘consensus’
Research: Normally more accurate than traditional groups
Should be facilitated
Delphi: Some Tips
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Revised Delphi Process
– Identification of stakeholders
– Individuals take stakeholders’ roles
– Judge from the viewpoint of the stake.
– Share the stakes.’ views in the first
round.
– Remove the roles and continue.
More details:
Okoli & Pawlowski (2004)
Goodwin & Wright (2014)
Virine and Trumper (2008)
Heterogeneity vs. Homogeneity
– Helps reduce bias
– Choose panellists with different views
– Forecasts
– Prioritization
– Ranking
Example applications
• Delphi Technique
• What is DELPHI METHOD? What does DELPHI METHOD mean? DELPHI METHOD meaning, definition & explanation
• Delphi Method 1
• Delphi Method 2 – Limitations, Examples, More Info
• Improving Your Ability to Deliver Projects: The Delphi Technique
Some Delphi Videos
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“Problem Identification
/Formulation/Analysis”
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Southampton Business School
Problem Identification – Pareto Analysis
• A tool for problem diagnosis/analysis.
• Initially was called 80/20 Rule: ‘80 per cent of a company’s benefits come from 20% of its products’; ‘80% of problems are caused by 20% of causes’, etc.
• Over time, the 80/20 per cent has been removed, but the principle is still valid.
• Core Idea: Apply effort where it has the highest impact or return.
(Maylor, 2010)
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Steps of Pareto Analysis:
• Identify the categories of problems;
• Find out the frequency of their
occurrence;
• Draw a problem-frequency (per cent of
occurrence) histogram;
• Analyse the diagram: identify those
items that might have caused most of
the quality problems;
• Focus on resolving those problems.
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Problem Identification – Pareto Analysis
(Maylor, 2010)
• Aka: Ishikawa/Fishbone diagram;
• Simple though strong graphical technique;
• Structures the outcome of problem solving or a brainstorming.
• Develops over a few drafts.
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Problem Identification – Cause and Effect Diagrams
(Maylor, 2010)
Example: Cause and Effect Diagrams
Effect/Problem
A Cause
Category
A Cause
Breakdown
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