Week 9

“Decision Making

Methods 1”

Dr Ramesh Vahidi r.vahidi@soton.ac.uk

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 1

Southampton Business School

27th & 29th Jul 21

 

 

Aims of Week 9

• A review of more common DM methods applicable in

PM for option/alternative and idea generation,

problem identification, formulation, prioritisation,

decision analysis and making, etc.

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 2

 

 

“Idea/Option

Generation/Selection”

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 3

Southampton Business School

 

 

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 4

Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Discussion until agreement Potential Problem: “We discussed and I decided”.

Form: Face to face (or virtual these days!) Process: Selection of a representative, abide by his/her decision Potential Problem: Lack of long term commitment Success criteria: Selection of the most qualified rep.

Consensus

Dictatorship

Techniques (non-structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (1)

 

 

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 5

Techniques (semi-/structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)

Brainstorming

Delphi

 

 

• What are the rules and conditions of a successful brainstorming session?

• Where could this method be most useful in project lifecycle?

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 6

Your Knowledge of Brainstorming

 

 

Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 7

Brainstorming Quantity matters

No criticism or early judgment

Unusual ideas welcome!

Combine/ modify ideas

Could be facilitated & documented

 

 

Brainstorming: Some Variations

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 8

Nominal Group Technique Brainstorming with Roles

– Individual idea generation – Anonymous – Facilitator/moderator – Members equal – Group prioritise ideas – More than one round

Group Passing Technique – Individuals put one idea on the paper – Round table – Circulating and adding to the ideas – Vote

– Inclusive, collaborative – Start with well-defined topic – Aggregated individual ideas on a map – Voting for priority/Taking action

Team Idea Mapping Method More variations:

Goodwin & Wright (2014)

Sekhar & Lidiya (2012)

Virine and Trumper (2008)

 

 

• Brainstorming Rys

• Jonah Lehrer on Brainstorming (*some focus on criticism)

• Brainstorming and essay writing

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cll6AEzXh8c

• (Really) Bad Brainstorm

• Think You’ve Already Been To The Worst Brainstorm Meeting Ever? Think Again

• Brainstorming: We Are Doing It Wrong

• How to run a more productive Brainstorming session by Dr Ken Hudson

• Brainstorming: Is Your Mind Wild Enough to Make a Conceptual Leap? | Bill Burnett

Some Brainstorming Videos

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 9

 

 

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 10

Techniques (structured) for Problem Identification/Resolution/Alternative Generation (2)

Delphi Quantitative forecasts

No or limited direct interaction/anonymous

Iterative

Individuals’ (panellists)

judgment and feedback

Outcome: Quantified group ‘consensus’

Research: Normally more accurate than traditional groups

Should be facilitated

 

 

Delphi: Some Tips

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 11

Revised Delphi Process

– Identification of stakeholders

– Individuals take stakeholders’ roles

– Judge from the viewpoint of the stake.

– Share the stakes.’ views in the first

round.

– Remove the roles and continue.

More details:

Okoli & Pawlowski (2004)

Goodwin & Wright (2014)

Virine and Trumper (2008)

Heterogeneity vs. Homogeneity

– Helps reduce bias

– Choose panellists with different views

– Forecasts

– Prioritization

– Ranking

Example applications

 

 

• Delphi Technique

• What is DELPHI METHOD? What does DELPHI METHOD mean? DELPHI METHOD meaning, definition & explanation

• Delphi Method 1

• Delphi Method 2 – Limitations, Examples, More Info

• Improving Your Ability to Deliver Projects: The Delphi Technique

Some Delphi Videos

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 12

 

 

“Problem Identification

/Formulation/Analysis”

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 13

Southampton Business School

 

 

Problem Identification – Pareto Analysis

• A tool for problem diagnosis/analysis.

• Initially was called 80/20 Rule: ‘80 per cent of a company’s benefits come from 20% of its products’; ‘80% of problems are caused by 20% of causes’, etc.

• Over time, the 80/20 per cent has been removed, but the principle is still valid.

• Core Idea: Apply effort where it has the highest impact or return.

(Maylor, 2010)

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 14

 

 

Steps of Pareto Analysis:

• Identify the categories of problems;

• Find out the frequency of their

occurrence;

• Draw a problem-frequency (per cent of

occurrence) histogram;

• Analyse the diagram: identify those

items that might have caused most of

the quality problems;

• Focus on resolving those problems.

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 15

Problem Identification – Pareto Analysis

(Maylor, 2010)

 

 

• Aka: Ishikawa/Fishbone diagram;

• Simple though strong graphical technique;

• Structures the outcome of problem solving or a brainstorming.

• Develops over a few drafts.

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 16

Problem Identification – Cause and Effect Diagrams

(Maylor, 2010)

 

 

Example: Cause and Effect Diagrams

Effect/Problem

A Cause

Category

A Cause

Breakdown

MANG6312@Ramesh Vahidi 2022 17

Order your essay today and save 10% with the discount code ESSAYHELP